** 6:30 AM CDT CBOT Prices: January soybeans are up 3.25 cents at $9.945, Dec corn is up 1.50 cents at $3.4975, while Dec Chi wheat is up 3.75 cents at $4.215.
** AgResource AM Grain & Oilseed Comment: Good Morning! President Trump will be nominating Jay Powell to head the US Central Bank this morning. The nomination is a continuation of the current Yellen policy and is being viewed as “favorable” by the financial markets.
CBOT grain futures are slightly higher overnight with funds continuing to cover net shorts in the corn/wheat markets. Soybeans are higher overnight on technical considerations as fund managers add to their net long position now that the US soybean harvest has likely reached near 90%. US farmers have further slowed their cash sales of soybeans which is firming cash basis bids
FC Stone estimated November US corn yield at 173.8 BPA and left their soy yield estimate at 49.9 BPA. Both would be a tad bearish, but Stone has a history of overstating November yields 70% of the time. Brazil’s soybean crop was lowered to 106.1 MMTs on delayed seeding. The Stone US corn yield would push US 17/18 corn end stocks near 2.5 Bil Bu – historically large.
Informa is expected to release their crop estimates this morning with large US supplies likely to be confirmed (again).
The US September soybean crush rate came in right at trade expectations at 145.4 Mil Bu with US soyoil stocks falling to 1,711 Mil pounds, down from 1,810 Mil pounds in August. Based on there being limited biodiesel imports from Argentina and Indonesia (due to current duty), US soyoil stocks are expected to continue to decline in the months ahead opening up the market to a rally above $.40/pound.
There were 50 contracts of soybeans retendered against November futures overnight. So far, no strong stoppers have emerged for the receipts.
Egypt has issued guidelines on wheat shipments amid ongoing inspection concern. These rules are expected to help Egyptian Gov’t inspectors at port be more consistent in applying grade to imported cargoes.
European wheat futures are slightly higher with Paris December up $1.25 euros at $160.75/MT. Malaysian December palmoil futures closed with a 14 ringgit loss at 2,803 RM/MT. Dalian corn and soymeal futures closed mixed with limited interest in new positions.
A good rain of .50-2.00” is falling across Argentina with the forecast looking cool/dry from Saturday forward. Soil moisture is adequate and the upcoming period of dryness will favor rapid seeding.
Brazilian soybeans will be well watered over the next 10 days with there being no evidence of any expanding dryness or heat.
Some additional fund demand is likely to be felt at the CBOT this AM, but we doubt that any rally can be sustained. We expect that the CBOT will chop sideways awaiting the November 8th USDA crop report.
** EU Model 10 Day Rainfall Forecast for North America:
