Observational discussion: Large regions featuring significant soil moisture changes over the past 3 months across the globe were evenly matched indicating 9 wetter and drier regions. The strongest drying trend was in Western Canada and entering November much of central and southern Canada were in drought. Southeast Canada into New England also trended drier during early-to-middle autumn. Alaska and the Central U.S. were wetter through middle autumn.
In South America the Brazilian drought remain unchanged. Argentina observed wetter soils especially northeast sections during early-to-middle spring.
In Europe 2 dramatic trends were observed: Drier in Southwest Europe while central and eastern sections were wetter. Ukraine observed a sharp dry trend.
The eastern Africa tropics trended drier with similar results in far southern Africa. Across Asia a wet reversal was indicated in Southern India while Southeast Asia trended drier. East-central Russia and Northeast Asia were wetter.
In Australia drought persistent in south/southeast zones while Queensland was much wetter.
The prevailing climate pattern was neutral ENSO trending toward La Nina while the Pacific decadal oscillation was near neutral and the Atlantic Multi-decadal oscillation were in the warm phase. November observed the strongest tropical West Pacific Madden Julian oscillation since 2015 which caused excessive rains in Queensland.
Forecast discussion: A weak La Nina is forecast to evolve during DEC/JAN/FEB 2017-18. In North America the 3-month outlook indicates dryness in central and east portions of the nation will intensify. Wet weather is expected in the East-Central U.S. with snows piling in the Midwest and Interior Northwest U.S. The La Nina influence causes drying across the southern U.S. In South America the wet soils of northeast Argentina reverse as a dry climate evolves. The dryness reaches into southeast Brazil.
A snowy winter is forecast across northwest and north-central portions of Russia. Wet conditions develop due to La Nina across Indonesia while areas to the north (East China to Japan) are drier than normal. The east and southeast Australia drought condition fades. Southeast Africa turns somewhat drier while subtropical western Africa is wetter.
