Brazilian Forecast Wetter; Argentina Dry Next 10 Days: The EU and GFS model are in good agreement on a much more expansive pattern of rainfall impacting Brazil in the 6-15 day period. Both also agree that little or no rain will fall across key Argentine crop areas in the next 10 days. Better rain chances are offered to Argentina thereafter, but confidence is low, and model verification beyond 10 days has been somewhat mediocre recently. Dryness in Argentina is still a positive in the very near term, but crops will demand moisture by early Dec.
The South American jet stream will be pushed northward beyond the next 4-5 days, bring along with it regular daily showers to much of Brazil. Total rainfall in Brazil next week is pegged at 3-5”, and should the forecast verify accumulation since late summer will begin to catch up to normal. Cumulative precip in Mato Grosso still lags last year & average, but by late Nov will be much less behind normal than in Sep/Oct. Climate guidance maintains normal precip in Brazil through early Dec.
US Rainfall Stays East; Plains Dryness Expanding: The Central US forecast is again little changed from previous runs, and the EU & GFS models are in good agreement. Additional lite showers will impact the Great Lakes/Easter Midwest later this week, while the remainder of the Central US stays near completely dry. 30-day percent of normal precip is at left and virtually no moisture has fallen across the Southern & Central Plains since early Oct.
One more frontal system will sweep across the northern edge of the Great Lakes Thurs-Sun, funneling additional lite/moderate precip into WI, IL, IN, OH, MI and PA on the weekend. Thereafter, a broad NW upper air develops. No meaningful rain is offered to any region of the Central US Nov 19-29, but cool temps will stay intact across the E Midwest into winter. Abnormal dryness looks to intensify across the HRW Belt.