** 6:30 AM CST CBOT Prices: January soybeans are down .50 of a cent at $9.98, March corn is up .50 of a cent at $3.54, and March Chi wheat is down 1.50 cents $4.3375.
** AgResource AM Grain & Oilseed Comment: Good Morning! Mixed and low volume has been the CBOT overnight with corn, soybeans and wheat trading either side of unchanged. Soyoil prices have declined based on sliding palmoil values, while the soymeal market is steady.
Just over 8,000 contracts of January soybeans, just over 7,000 contracts of March corn, and just over 4,000 contracts of March Chi wheat have changed hands. Such volume is a fourth of the volume of Monday’s active trade.
Monday’s CBOT open interest data shows that corn declined 8,252 contracts and wheat 4,065 contracts, while soybeans were up 660 contracts.
The Australian Bureau of Meteorology (BOM) confirmed that La Nina is in existence with the models are forecasting its continuance in a weak state into at least April. The weather fingerprint of La Nina has been in witnessed and felt for 6 weeks across South America with noted dryness developing across Argentina and the southern third of Brazil.
The overnight weather forecasts for South America were consistent with each other and prior day runs, with one exception – the models reduced or eliminated rain chances during the 11-15 day period across Argentina and S. Brazil. This leaves a rather arid forecast with warming temps into Dec 20th. High temps will reach the 90’s to lower 100’s adding a new weather element of stress on Argentine and Southern Brazilian summer row crops. Up until now, heat has been lacking in the Argentine and Southern Brazilian forecast.
Regular and sometimes heavy rains look to drop across the northern 2/3’s of Brazil with 10 day rainfall totals ranging from 3-8.00”. The rains will saturate soils. Producers tell ARC that more sunshine would be welcomed. Temperatures will be seasonal with highs in the 80’s and a few lower 90’s.
A stronger ringgit vs the USD pressured Malaysian palmoil futures with the January contract at 2,533 RM/MT, down 22 ringgits. ARC research argues that January palmoil futures should forge a bottom between 2,450-2,500 RM/MT.
China’s Dalian corn/soymeal futures closed higher with another active domestic trade in cash soymeal. Jan Dalian corn closed with a 1 cent gain/Bu at $6.65 while Jan Dalian soybean closed up $1.50/MT at $442.30/MT.
Paris March Chi wheat is trading down $.75/MT at $161.00 as the world wheat market is little changed. Russian wheat this AM is bid at $190 and offered at $191/MT. Russia exported a record volume of wheat in November.
Other fresh grain news is lacking with the USD slightly weaker this AM as it gives back a good portion of yesterday’s Trump Tax related gains.
It’s rather straightforward – the Argentine and S Brazilian weather forecast is arid for the next 2 weeks and the CBOT needs to add weather premium with time. Any CBOT breaks will be shallow until better rain arrives.
