Funds covered a sizeable part of their net short position, and the major forecast models over the weekend trended abruptly cooler through the remainder of June. On the margin, this will help endure ongoing dryness across the Plains & Western Midwest. However, meaningful precip is absent, and net drying will occur across a bulk of the Corn Belt over the next 10 days.
And as evidenced by spring, ARC expects a wide range of weather conditions through the next 30 days, including the return of heat in July. The mean position of high pressure Ridging warrants close monitoring.
GD/EX US corn crop ratings were unchanged at 67%, vs 75% a year ago. So far, crops across the Central Plains have endured the expanding dryness. Modest improvement is noted across SD, ND and MN following last week’s need rainfall.
It’s unwise to turn bearish on breaks or bullish on rallies, and we mention oat and sorghum conditions ratings which fell slightly. Cash wheat prices across the Plains are now quoted at substantial premium to corn. Dryness is being watched across Europe and Ukraine, and aside from Argentina, the US Gulf market is competing for summer export demand. Corn lacks clarity on the US supply outlook and we advise patience in extending forward sales.