** The CBOT is mixed in rather tame volume with the summer row crops weaker, while the wheat market is firmer. The AM selling has taken back a portion of Thursday’s gain. However, for the week, September corn is up 7 cents, September soybeans are up 7 cents while September Chi wheat is down 4 cents.
It’s important to note that both corn/soy futures will be closing the week higher with a further fall in US crop condition ratings expected on Monday. ARC looks for a 1-2% fall in US corn/soy GD/EX ratings on Monday.
The graphic reflects this past week’s rainfall as a percent of normal, and although there has been some above normal totals that has fallen across MN/WI, most other locations have witnessed a further fall in soil moisture in relation to extreme heat. Rains that fell overnight from Central IA into IN held some localized totals, but were still below normal for the week
** Weekly US Rainfall in Percent of Normal:
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** The point is that if there is improvement in crop ratings they should come in MN, WI and potentially SD. The remainder of the Central US should see ratings that hold steady or decline. Producers reported considerable stress on dryland corn in NE with corn rolling for the past 2-3 days across W IA/MO.
** August CBOT options expire today and there could be jostling at the close on positioning. No major fireworks are expected.
** The ‘17 Spring Wheat Crop Quality Tour starts on Monday and the tweets coming from the Dakotas that will be closely monitored by traders. ARC expects that participants will not only try to measure HRS yields, but also make some judgment on corn/soybean potential. Dakota producers exclaim that outside of the extreme eastern area of North Dakota, the outlook for HRS and summer row crops is extremely poor. Spring wheat abandonment rates could reach 30% as it just does not pay to harvest what’s there.
** US soybean export demand is on a seasonal increase with vessels arriving for Gulf load-out jumping 100% in just the last week. This has US exporters hunting for cash soybeans and raising their basis bids. US wheat demand also remains solid as the US dollar declines farther. The 8% drop in the value of the US dollar is catching the attention of world ag buyers.
** CBOT floor brokers report that funds have sold 7,500 contracts of corn, 5,300 contracts of soybeans while being generally flat in wheat.
** Midday GFS Weather Model Update: The midday run is slightly wetter for S MN and WI and drier for the N Plains/W IA this weekend and early next week. The GFS is having difficulty in trying to peg the exact location of where rain falls. However, rain is NOT forecast for the dry areas of the Plains and W Midwest into late next week. E MN and WI are already excessively wet and both desire sunshine. The best rain chances are across MN,WI and N IL into Tuesday.
The rain chances improve late next week across the E Midwest – including the northern half of IL. This remains a warm to hot pattern which will push corn maturity by being too warm at night. Highs range from the mid 80’s to lower 100’s with lows holding in the 70s to lower 80’s.
The 11-15 day period features an amplfied Ridge of high pressure across the Intermountain West and extending into the C Plains. This is much warmer/drier profile than what was offered overnight.
** AgResource Market Comment: This week’s heat/building dryness stressed Plains and W Midwest crops. There is no evidence of a US weather pattern change! The risk is that the Plains and Midwest heat/dryness returns in early August. Any hint of the US ’17 corn yield declining below 162 BPA would send corn futures to new highs. Do not sell the break! The risk is one of a further fall in US corn and soybean yield potential.
