** 6:30 AM CST CBOT Futures: Mar soybeans are up .50 of a cent at $9.08, Mar corn is unchanged at $3.7475 and Mar Chi wheat is down 4.25 cents at $5.00.
** AgResource Morning CBOT Comment/Analysis: Good Morning! Mixed in good volume has been the overnight trade. An opening rally effort ran into selling pressure in wheat which has produced a mixed morning trade. Over 22,000 contracts of March corn and over 11,000 contracts of March Chi wheat have changed hands, both are solid overnight volume totals.
The US and China will restart trade negotiations today. Most important to agriculture is the work being accomplished on non-tariff trade barriers and China’s acceptance of GMO trait approval. USDA Sec Purdue highlighted this fact on Monday, but also added that enforce-ability is key going forward. This week’s negotiations will focus on the signing of MOU’s on points of agreement. Vice Premier Liu He will be in attendance on Thursday and Friday.
Negotiators are pushing ahead of the March 1st tariff increase deadline in the hope that enough progress will be scored so that US President Trump and Chinese President Xi can hash out the final details of a pact during March.
Russian wheat stocks continued their sharp decline as of February 1st. Large farm stocks were down 34% from last year at just 8.7 MMTs. Of that total 1.7 MMTs are located on Siberia which are isolated from the export market and most millers via distance. Russian interior wheat prices continue to rise on supply tightness and are at least $9-11/MT above fob export offers basis Novo.
The Trump Administration is reviewing the trade distorting practices of the EU and is considering placing import tariffs on EU autos. The EU’s 28 nation head Claude Juncker is threatening that Europe would secure less US soybeans and natural gas in retaliation. EU members have secured around 165 Mil Bu of US soybeans in the current crop year to date.
US export inspections for the week ending Feb 14th are estimated in ranges of; 16-19 Mil Bu of wheat, 41-47 Mil Bu of soybeans, and 36-41 Mil Bu of corn. US soybean shipments increased amid Chinese Gov’t quick exports of purchases.
The South American weather forecast has less rain than desired for Argentina over the next 2 weeks. Heat will be felt this week before a frontal pass on the weekend. The dryness is starting to adversely impact soybeans across the southern half of the Argy crop area. The Brazilian weather forecast holds near to above normal rains with the soy harvest likely to reach beyond 50% by the end of the month. The winter corn crop is off to a favorable start.
North Africa wheat is being hit by dryness. And as the crop starts its critical reproductive stage, limited rains are seen in the next 2 weeks.
ARC doubts that any CBOT weakness can be sustained as US/China talks advance and the USDA Annual Outlook Meeting looms late week.
** Arctic Cold Pushes Deeper into the Plains in the Next 2 weeks:
** The Snows Pile Up across Iowa and the Lake States:
** More Heavy Rains for the Delta and the SE US:
