** 6:30 AM CST CBOT Prices: May soybeans are down 1.00 cent at $10.765, May corn is down .50 of a cent at $3.8675, and May Chi wheat is down 4.00 cents at $5.0525.
** AgResource AM Grain & Oilseed Comment: Good Morning! The overnight CBOT trade has been mixed to lower in diminished volume as traders ponder the USDA crop report due Thursday amid ongoing dry weather for Argentina and the Western US Plains. Traders are less certain if President Trump will impose steel/aluminum tariffs later this week, after Canada lashed out at the proposal in Mexico City following the conclusion of the 7th round of NAFTA negotiations. NAFTA negotiations scored some progress, but not enough to conclude talks in late April or early May as was initially hoped. Whether the US will offer another NAFTA extension is uncertain as they await Mexico’s Presidential election results in July.
CBOT open interest continued to surge on Monday with a gain of 26,334 contracts in corn, 11,953 soybeans, and 3,138 contracts in Chi wheat. Total corn open interest is now above 1.7 Mil contracts.
There were 135 contracts of March soymeal, 125 contracts of March soyoil, 213 contracts of March corn, 10 contracts of March KC wheat tendered for delivery. No soybeans or Chi wheat were tendered.
Egypt’s GASC is tendering for world wheat and is expected to secure Russian wheat with the lowest fob offer being $213/MT for 55,000 MTs. Romanian wheat was offered $6/MT higher at $219.00. Egypt’s new crop wheat harvest will start in April and Egypt’s international import demand is expected to wane into July
The needed soaking rain to ease Argentina’s dire drought is not evident over the next 2 weeks. Dry weather conditions will prevail into Friday, before a few showers return on the weekend with totals of .1-.7” followed by another 2-3 days of dry weather, and a few more lite showers in the 11-15 day period. Y Temps will hold in the 80’s to lower 90’s into Friday before warming to the upper 80’s to the mid 90’s on the weekend & turning seasonal again next week.
The Brazilian weather forecast features additional heavy rains across the Central and North and mostly dry weather across RGDS. High temps will range from the mid 80’s to the lower 90’s. The harvest pace will be slowed by ongoing daily rains. RGDS is slowly being included in the Argentine drought.
Precipitation will be lacking for the US Plains over the next 10 days with better chances noted for the 11-15 day period. Some moisture is expected across NE, OK, KS and SD during that period with only TX being skipped.
Paris May wheat futures are down .25 euros at $165.50 euros/MT with China’s Dalian corn futures closing higher with soymeal mixed. Malaysian palmoil futures closed 15 ringgits higher in May futures at 2,485 RM/MT.
The easy money has been made being long corn, soy or wheat in the past 6 weeks as the world still has too much old crop supply for a push above $11 May beans. One has to be careful chasing any CBOT rally with futures heavily laden with fund market length and trade tensions persisting.
** Plain’s Rain is Lacking for the next 10 Days:
