** 6:30 AM CST CBOT Prices: May soybeans are down 5.50 cents at $10.695, May corn is down .50 of a cent at $3.88, and May Chi wheat is down 2.50 cents at $5.045.
** AgResource AM Grain & Oilseed Comment: Good Morning! The overnight CBOT grain trade has been lower on the abrupt resignation of Gary Cohen, US chief economic adviser. Cohen resigned late Tuesday as President Trump is surely to announce new import tariffs on steel/aluminum, which will cause retaliation for a host of nations. The Trump Tariff announcement could come at any time.
Mr Cohen was a “free trade” advocate and a strong supporter of US agriculture. His departure will leave a void at the White House with the remaining voice of trade reason held by USDA Sec Purdue. NAFTA talks will become more difficult without Cohen, and concern is rising that the Trump Administration may want to tear up NAFTA and start anew.
In the wake of Cohen’s resignation, the US DOW is expected to open 300-400 points lower, the US dollar is weaker, and most commodity markets are lower on liquidation. China has offered a measured response on the resignation, but clearly the new Trump tariffs are aimed at this key ag trading partner.
CONAB and the USDA will release their March crop reports on Thursday AM. The trade will closely monitor the size of the reduction of Argentine crops.
CBOT open interest rose 14,869 contracts in corn, 11,734 contracts in soybeans, and 1,467 contracts in Chi wheat. Funds added to market length.
There were 135 contracts of March soymeal, 35 contracts of March soyoil, 7 contracts of March corn, 7 contracts of March KC wheat, and 2 oats tendered for delivery. No soybeans or Chi wheat deliveries were noted.
The needed soaking rain to ease Argentina’s dire drought is not evident over the next 2 weeks. Dry weather will prevail into Friday, before a few showers return on the weekend (totals of .1-.7”) followed by another 2-3 days of dry weather, and a few more lite showers in the 11-15 day period. The forecasted rain is less than what was offered at midday yesterday, and there is clearly no sign of the meaningful rain to stabilize crops and prevent a further decline in soil moisture. High temps will range from the 80’s to mid 90s.
On another dry front, the forecast models have reduced the chance of any meaningful rain for the parched areas of the W Plains for another 10-12 days. There are hints of a change in the pattern during the 13-15 day period, but our confidence that far out is low. Warming temps and dry weather will start to green the wheat crop, meaning that moisture is needs are immediate.
Malaysian palmoil futures fell to fresh 6 week lows as India’s decade high import tax along with a pending seasonal increase in supply weighed on prices. The May palmoil futures contract closed at 2,440 RM/MT, down 35 ringgits.
May Paris wheat is down 1.00 euro/MT at $164.50 on looming large supplies.
It’s a “get down day” with the USDA report due out Thursday and traders holding large net long CBOT positions. Ongoing dryness in Argentina and the W US Plains will offer support, but protectionist trade actions by the Trump Administration raises the risk of US ag retaliation, and reduced future demand.
** Plains Stays Dry for At Least Another 10 Days:
