AgResource Daily Farm Marketing Advice for Thursday: 1/ No new advice.
6:30 AM CDT CBOT Prices: Nov soybeans are down 6.50 cents at $9.59, Dec corn is down 1.50 cents at $3.525 while Dec Chi wheat is down 1.75 cents at $4.5975.
Good Morning! It was another overnight session spent mostly in the red amid ongoing harvest pressure (interior basis in many areas remains quite weak), and as key USDA data lies just one day in the offing. Whether or not end users jump on weakness into close will be watched, but ARC anticipates a rather choppy session. Most importance in tomorrow’s USDA release will be Jun-Aug soybean residual, and whether final old crop soy stocks are pulled further below 350 Mil Bu.
World weather forecasts this AM are mixed. The major models are in general agreement that the driest areas of New South Wales in Australia will see a round of widespread moderate rainfall worth .50-2.00” in early October. Better shower activity is scheduled to begin Oct 9-10, and while they’ll certainly be welcomed ARC wonders if it’s simply too late to make much difference. Recall virtually zero rain has fallen in September, a key period for growth.
The GFS is also much wetter in the E Midwest beginning October 7th, but like in recent days the EU/Canadian outlooks are not, and so we await confirmation from other models before putting too much faith in this pattern changes. This AM’s drought monitor will show further deterioration east of the MS River.
And South America’s pattern is little changed, and still features the return of dry and rather warm weather across Central & Northern Brazil beyond the early part of next week. Near term rain will be enough to spur elevated planting activity, but the complete transition to the wet season looks to be one that ebbs and flows into mid-Oct.
Russia’s Ag Minister stated overnight that Russian wheat exports are expected at 30 MMTs. This is a bit lower than expected (the USDA’s currently at 32.5), and offers yet more uncertainty with respect to the world wheat trade matrix. It appears that recently Russia has been favoring wheat over other grains, and that Russia may be able to ship up to 33.0-33.5 MMTs of wheat. Certainly a record monthly pace of shipments is needed to even get to 30-31 MMTs.
US weekly export sales should be robust in soybeans, likely at/above 2.0 MMTs, but unexciting in corn, wheat, meal and soy oil. Corn sales are expected in a range of 500-650,000 MTs, with wheat pegged at 350-450,000 MTs. Into late year S America will dominate corn trade (and note that Brazilian fob basis is a bit weaker today) and Russia will dominate wheat trade. A boost in US wheat exports especially, though, is expected in Dec/Jan.
The US Dollar is down slightly. Crude is up $.50/barrel at $52.60. Palm oil settled lower for a second consecutive session, and EU milling wheat futures so far are unchanged.
Seasonal trends point up in wheat, corn should follow to some extent, but any real fundamental excitement in the near term will center on beans. The soy balance will be more sensitive to even slight changes in old crop stocks & yield, and yield data on later planted crops is anxiously awaited.
