** 6:30 AM CBOT Futures: Mar soybeans are down 1.00 cent at $8.995, Mar corn is up 3.0 cents at $3.7275 and Mar Chi wheat is down 1.00 cent at $4.89.
** AgResource Morning CBOT Comment/Analysis: Good Morning! CBOT values are mixed in solid volume in an active overnight CBOT trade.
CBOT corn has paced the rally based on US President Trump’s comment on China’s purchases of US corn, while soybeans/wheat trade either side of unchanged as bearish charts battle the growing probability of a US/China trade deal. On Thursday, USDA will likely release their 2019 US crop seeding estimates with new crop S&D’s due out early Friday morning. Moreover, FAS will release over a months of US export sales data Friday morning that will include additional sizeable China soybean purchases from the US.
US President Trump in speaking from the Oval office late Tuesday stated that; “The US could be selling China more corn than anyone thought possible”. Trump expressed optimism on the US/China trade talks, suggesting they are going very well. Moreover, President Trump stated that March 1st is not a magical date for a China trade deal and that there is some flexibility in when the negotiations will be completed. Today, the political “big guns” of US Ambassador Lighthizer, US Sec Treasury Mnuchin and China Vice Premier Liu He will be meeting in the US capital to further advance the trade talks.
ARC maintains that a China annual pledge to secure record amounts of US ag goods remains featured to curtail the US/China trade deficit.
Egypt’s GASC is back for FH April shipment wheat. The tender is ongoing and includes Serbian wheat for the first time. It will be interesting to see if the decline in Russian fob prices over the past 10 days allows for a new sale. Russia fob wheat offers have been too high in recent tenders which has allowed US and Eastern European wheat to be featured in sales.
Democrats appear the holding up the US Biodiesel tax credit as leverage for other tax issues. There is no movement forward. And with biodiesel margins under economic pressure, the industry is seeking negotiations for a way forward. Grassley R IA is heading lobbying effort for credit reinstatement.
Winter will “hold on” across the Central US for another 3 weeks. With Midwest soil moisture levels nearing record levels, the piling up of more snow along with the cold is starting to produce a discussion on when spring planting can commence? Delta farmers are also struggling with too much rain.
Declining fob world wheat prices along with Argentine corn being discounted
vs the US pressured CBOT prices on Tuesday. However, China purchases of US corn and Northern Hemisphere weather woes would completely change the outlook.
CBOT volatility is likely to become more acute heading into spring planting.
