Pictured: U.S. soil moisture anomalies (left) and seasonal soil moisture trend (right).
Currently, the North-Central Great Plains are in an accelerating drought condition. The North-Central and west U.S. has trended drier during the past 90 days. Meanwhile the Great Lakes region and north/northeast Gulf States have trended somewhat wetter. The soil moisture trend foreshadows the climate pattern ahead for middle summer.
The midday GFS ENS forecast best identifies the middle third of July thermal pattern as the dry-trend northwest sector of the U.S. is hot while the wet soil trend across much of the East-Central finds suppressed heat risk. The trend of models over-the-weekend is cooler East and hotter Northwest.
Pictured: GFS ENS days 6-10/11-15 temperature anomaly forecast for the U.S.
The Great Plains precipitation forecast is drier than normal throughout the medium-range forecast. Across the north/central Great Plains a dry northwest flow in-between an eastern trough and hot upper ridge over the Northwest U.S. dominates the 6-10/11-15 day period following a wet pattern over the next 5 days.
Pictured: GFS ENS days 6-10/11-15 precipitation anomaly forecast for the U.S.
