** 6:30 AM CST CBOT Prices: March soybeans are up 3.25 cents at $9.7625, March corn is up 1.50 cents at $3.53, and March Chi wheat is up 1.0 cent at $4.2625.
** AgResource AM Grain & Oilseed Comment: Good Morning! The overnight CBOT trading session has been mostly higher with soybeans/soymeal leading the upward charge based on technical considerations and concerning South American weather. The volume of trade has improved with just over 10,000 Mar soybeans, just over 4,500 Mar corn, and just over 5,500 Mar Chi wheat changing hands.
Thursday’s CBOT open interest showed a 15,823 contract fall in corn, a 6,002 contract gain in soybeans and a 1,449 contract gain in wheat.
For the holiday shortened week, soybeans are up 16 cents, corn is up 7 cents and Chicago wheat has gained 6 cents. If you did not know that the commodities were soybeans, corn or wheat, you would say that the charts are looking rather bullish with seasonal lows at hand. The continuation daily chart in soybeans looks especially bullish following Tuesday’s gap higher.
The US dollar index is testing psychological support at 90.00 with crude oil down $.50/barrel at $63.39. A close below $.90 on the USD index is bearish.
FAS will release its weekly export sales report this AM with the CFTC releasing its Commitment of Traders (CoT) report this PM. The CoT report is expected to reflect a record short CBOT managed money short position in the grains, and a net short of around 93,000 contracts in soybeans. The large net short creates additional upside market risk depending on S American weather.
The US House has approved a stopgap spending measure for the US Gov’t, but the vote in the Senate has stalled on a democratic plea for a deal on DACA, military spending and other issues. A federal shutdown would stop the flow of USDA information including a slew of daily/weekly and monthly agricultural reports. However, “essential” USDA operations would continue.
The US/EU weather models end the week in good agreement on the Argentine forecast with a trend of below normal rainfall to continue. There is a chance of a few localized showers across the far northern crop areas of Argentina, but most amounts would be less than .50”. The main crop area looks to hold in a rather arid 10 day trend with just a few lite showers of under .25”. Argy soil moisture levels will be in retreat with the only good news being that 10 day temperatures will be seasonal – no extreme heat is noted.
The forecasting models differ on rain chances across N Brazil late next week. A below normal rain trend will persist for the northern half of Brazil into Thursday. The US GFS model offers improved rain chances thereafter, while the EU model holds onto the below normal rainfall trend. Some heat is offered with highs ranging from the mid 80’s to mid 90’s. ARC sides with the EU model on its drier N Brazil outlook amid the heavy rains across S Brazil.
The charts point higher on concerning Argentine weather amid funds that are holding a sizeable short. Key resistance in Mar soybeans lies against $10.00.
**15 day Temp and Rainfall Anomalies for South America;
