Weekly Newsletter, June 6
In this week’s newsletter, we take a look at probable scenarios for US corn, wheat and soybean supply & demand for the next 5 years. Our US corn yield model is also updated.
US Hard Red Spring Wheat Supply & Demand
It’s time to start pondering a spring wheat yield well below trend.
Afternoon Weather Update
Central US Drier Nearby, Some Rain Next Week; Late June Also Trending Drier: The overall US pattern is little changed, while the details of the near term outlook have trended drier/warmer than Monday’s release. A sharp decline in soil moisture lies in the offing, and the issue is still whether extended range outlooks are correct…
World Wheat Market Reacts to US Crop Conditions, Weaker Dollar
There’s talk that Egpyt may move to a zero tolerance on ergot fungus, which on the margin will slow Egyptian demand. But the market’s focus is clearly centered on the potential need to ration US spring wheat demand, a modest downward revision to total US production in Friday’s NASS Crop Report. Note that there’s little/no moisture…
Corn Adds Premium Amid Coming Soil Moisture Decline
July corn rallied to a fresh 4-month high on a continuation basis, and all contracts traded pretty easily through technical resistance. ARC maintains it’s premature to be overly bullish, and follow through will in large part hinge upon the upcoming weather forecast. However, soil moisture will be in sharp decline in the next 10 days,…
