Climate Impact Report: Wet Pattern in Australia; Drier End of Month
Climate Impact Company Week 2-4 Outlook
Australia
Issued: Sunday, January 7, 2024
Highlight: Models maintain short-term wet pattern, drier (again) in extended-range.
Charts of the day: Comparing observed December 2023 climate cs. CIC forecast.
Discussion: An unexpected upper trough dropped anchor on the south-central Australia coast during December. Coupled with an evolving marine heat wave off the East Coast, the stage was set for frequent heavy rains on the East to South-central Coast. Much of Australia was hotter than normal during December with west and northwest continent strengthening drought.
Week-2 Ahead Forecast valid January 14-20, 2024 (previous below): Stays mostly wet central and east continent.
Discussion: Upper trough across Eastern Australia persists just-after mid-month sustaining a wet pattern across the central and eastern continent. Hot and dry weather adheres to Western Australia.
Week-3 Ahead Forecast valid January 21-27, 2024 (previous below): Widening wet weather zone.
Discussion: The (wet) upper trough weakens limiting wet weather across eastern continent while Queensland trends hotter.
Week-4 Ahead Forecast valid January 28-February 3, 2024: Widespread heat/dryness.
Widespread subtropical ridging causes a continental hot/dry regime into early February.
