** 6:30 AM CST CBOT Prices: July soybeans are up 1.5 cents at $9.645, July corn is down .75 of a cent at $3.705 while July wheat is down 4.0 cents at $4.2875.
** AgResource AM Grain & Oilseed Comment: Good Morning! Low volume and mixed has been the start of the week at the CBOT. Corn and wheat have traded mostly lower while the soybean market caught a bid and has posted modest gains on rising world tropical oil prices. The volume of trade has been low again with just over 8,500 contracts of July corn, just over 8,000 contracts of July soybeans, and just over 7,500 contracts of July Chi wheat changing hands.
In world macro financial markets, crude oil values are up another $1.30/ barrel as Russia looks to join OPEC in cutting production. The US dollar is slightly weaker while the Dow is expected to open higher as world energy prices soar. Rising energy will place a supportive tailwind behind corn.
AgResource looks for another low volume and two sided trading session amid a lack of fresh news. US farmers will be able to seed and reseed spring crops in the saturated E Midwest on a warmer/drier weather trend this week, but too much rain will fall across the Plains which will allow disease pressures to flourish in the Plain’s wheat. No big USDA reports are due until June.
In world ag markets, Malaysian palmoil futures jumped 33 ringgits to 2,683 RM/MT on a 9% gain on May to date palmoil exports. China’s September Dalian soymeal futures lost $2.90/MT to close at $404. Dalian September corn gained 2 cents/Bu to $6.07. Paris wheat is down .75 of a euro to $168.75/MT.
A Trough west and weak Ridge weather pattern will be noted across the US this week. This implies big rain totals for the Plains and W Midwest, but mostly dry weather for the E Midwest until Friday when new rainfall chances arrive.
The rains will start later today across the Plains and W Midwest with a slow moving storm system producing 1.50-4.50” of rain. The heaviest totals look to fall across S MN, W IA, MO and much of KS. Temps turn cooler after Tuesday and hold in a below to much below temp profile into May 25th.
The E Midwest will be dry for much of the work week with temps spiking on Tuesday/Wednesday with high temps in the 80’s and a few lower 90’s. The rains return late Friday and continue on the weekend with totals of .5-2.00”. 5 days of warm/dry weather should allow farmers to plant/replant spring crops. The 11-15 day period looks wet across much of the Central US with additional heavy rain for the Plains (OK/KS) which are unwanted with the wheat harvest starting
US export inspections for the week ending May 11th are estimated in a range of; 14-18 Mil Bu of wheat, 39-43 Mil Bu of corn, and 14-17 Mil Bu of soybeans.
The US ag markets appear to be in a state of waiting. Range bound trade is expected to continue this week with traders eyeing China and E Europe where weather trends will be warmer/drier into June. In the US, the weather topic is too much rain. ARC awaits CBOT rallies to make sales with there being no rush to sell new crop corn, wheat or soybeans from the US nor world farmer. The odds are high of a few good weather scare rallies during June and July.
NOPA will release their April Crush report today which is expected to confirm a slightly lower pace than March.
