** 6:30 AM CDT CBOT Prices: November soybeans are up 2.5 cents at $9.48, Dec corn is up .50 of a cent at $3.5825 while Dec Chi wheat is up 3.00 cents at $4.375.
** AgResource AM Grain & Oilseed Comment: Good Morning & Welcome to September! CBOT futures started out mixed overnight, but quickly caught a bid on Thursday’s strong rally and bullish technical considerations. For the week to date, corn and wheat are up around 4 cents while soybeans are up 1.5 cents.
The volume of overnight trade has increased to just over 22,000 contracts of December corn, just over 10,000 contracts of November soybeans, and just over 9,000 contracts of December Chi wheat.
CBOT open interest gained 2,298 contracts in corn, 4,756 contracts in soybeans, and 1,364 contracts in Chi wheat.
There were 200 contracts of soymeal, 461 contracts of soyoil, 832 contracts of corn, 4 oats and 1 soybean posted for delivery against September futures.
Late Thursday, brokerage firm FC Stone estimated the 2017 US corn and soybean yield at 166.9 and 49.8 BPA, respectfully. This was up from their August estimates of 162.8 and 47.7 BPA. NASS crop enumerators are out in the fields making their measurements with their results released on September 12th. Pod and ear counts are below recent years, making the Sept report interesting.
The N Plains and Midwest weather forecast is dry/mild for the next 2 weeks. The remains of tropical storm Harvey is producing heavy rains across KY with totals ranging from .5-2.50”. Some of this rain may leak into the S Ohio Valley, but otherwise, the Central US forecast is dry with temps dipping into the mid 30’s for lows across the Dakotas, MN and WI around Sept 6th.
There is no evidence of freezing temps for the Midwest into mid-September. However, this is one of the driest finishes of a crop growing cycle that has been recorded with the dryness to impact soybeans more than corn.
The Australian weather forecast offers limited rain for crops over the next 10 days with the hint of better rain chances in the 11-15 day period. Cold temps have produced some small grain frost damage in New South Wales and Victoria that is still being assessed. The need for rain will increase in mid-September as the wheat reproductive period starts.
34% of the Argentine wheat area is suffering from excessive soil moisture based on a report from the Buenos Aries Commodity Exchange. The forecast calls for additional moisture that could lead to greater wheat fungal diseases.
Other news is limited, and a two sided CBOT trading session is expected heading into the long US holiday weekend. This afternoon’s CFTC report is expected to reflect another increase in the net short positions of funds. ARC doubts that the current rally effort can be sustained without NASS confirming a US corn and soybean yield decline from August. Based on cool temps and a rise in crop condition ratings, traders are expecting a September yield gains. A close above $9.51 November soybeans and $3.60 December corn is needed to turn the short term price trends upwards. Our bet is that some backing and filling is required and that any AM rally will be unable to be sustained.
** EU Model 10 Day Rainfall Forecast:
