The International Research Institute late Monday updated its May-Jul climate forecast. The global outlook is below. Pockets of dryness are offered to the Eastern US & Kazakhstan. Severe drought will continue across Eastern Australia for a third consecutive summer. Warm temps are forecast in most areas, but otherwise the Northern Hemisphere forecast lacks glaring threats…
The EU/Black Sea forecast maintains a general trend of declining soil moisture over the next 10 days. However, key parts of Eastern Ukraine and Southern Russia will see another round of needed showers in the next 48 hours. This will bring total April precip to near normal levels. The graphic at left shows historical April…
Questions remain over the pattern in late April and beyond. The GFS maintains a lack of precip across the principle Corn Belt April 21-27. The better performing EU model keeps an active pattern of showers intact, with the heaviest totals to favor the Delta and Eastern Midwest. The EU model’s two-week % of normal rainfall…
Widespread rainfall returns yet again late next week. The Delta/Southeast will again be favored with totals of .50-1.50”. The GFS then turns much drier beginning April 21, though confidence in this outlook is low. The EU model’s extended range forecast is unchanged from prior runs and includes ongoing lite but continues precip across the E…
And it remains difficult to find longer term model guidance that hints of a major pattern change. The CFS model’s 16-30 day outlook features the chance of drier weather in the first week of May but then returns active showers to the whole of the Central US thereafter. We’ve mentioned previously that excess soil moisture…
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