This week’s Highlights: Still cold North/warm South U.S., warmer pattern change Europe and beneficial rain risk for Argentina
U.S. soil moisture: April arrives with a fairly dramatic U.S. soil moisture profile. In the Great Plains Kansas is very dry and the dryness extends to western/southern Texas (Fig. 1). Wet soils are gaining strength thanks to a wet late winter/early spring in the Mid-South U.S. stretching from Texas into the Ohio Valley (Fig. 2). The 15-day outlook comparing the GFS and ECM ensemble reveals storminess in the Northwest and Ohio Valley to possibly the Mid-Atlantic States (Fig. 3-4). The GFS is stronger with the wet anomalies. The consensus of the ensembles is the dry area affecting the southwest quadrant of the U.S. remains dry the next 15 days. The temperature forecast maintains a similar theme with cold to very cold temperatures across the northern U.S. and anomalous warmth mostly in the Southwest to Texas. The northern chill is sufficient to produce more snows sustaining already above normal snow cover.
Fig. 1-2: Current U.S. soil moisture anomalies and seasonal trend.
Fig. 3-4: The GFS and ECM ensembles and their 15-day percent of normal precipitation forecasts for the U.S.
Europe: Snow cover and cold plaguing Europe/Western Russia may ease later this week and last toward mid-April (Fig. 5-6). A rain storm over East Europe to Northwest Russia this week is subtropical in nature. Following the ending of this rain, especially in Europe a steadily warmer regime develops. The warm peak agreed upon by both the GFS and ECM operational models occurs in the 6-10 day period stretched across the entire Wheat Belt. Any lingering winter snows disappear. The GFS operational model indicates strong warming for all but northern Europe continuing in the 11-15 day period.
Fig. 5-6: The ECM OP day 1-5/day 6-10 temperature anomaly forecast across Europe.
South America: The Madden Julian oscillation is shifting east across the equatorial East Pacific and into the Atlantic tropics the next 10 days. The MJO shift through this longitude supports wetter than normal climate across South America. The GFS operational week 1 and 2 ahead percent of normal rainfall forecast (Fig. 7-8) indicate a wet scenario across Brazil which is a confident projection. In Argentina the trend is wetter thanks to the MJO and features a wet cold front late this week and a lower confidence projection of a slower moving front with 2-3 days of heavy rain in Argentina in 10+ days.
Fig. 7-8: The GFS OP day 1-7/day 8-14 percent of normal rainfall forecast across South America.
Australia: The Southeast Australia drought region (Fig. 9) remains dry over the next 15 days according to most forecast models. The GFS ensemble is the driest solution and has dry conditions for most of the continent (Fig. 10).
Fig. 9-10: The strongest drought in Australia is across southeast sections and the 15-day GFS ensemble indicates more dryness ahead.
