Fig. 1-2: Current U.S. soil moisture anomalies and seasonal change. U.S. soil moisture discussion: Harsh drought is present in California, the Great Basin and Southwest U.S. plus Nebraska/Iowa and Texas as of early January (Fig. 1). The seasonal change in soil moisture highlights the Mid-south States as a new emerging dry zone (Fig. 2). The…
AgResource Farm Marketing Advice for Thursday: 1/ Wheat Producers: Exit 25% of 2021 Wheat Hedges basis July Chi futures at $5.86. ARC feels uncomfortable with being 50% sold as the 2021 Russian wheat crop suffers under a drought. The verification of various weather models indicated the failure of the GFS in forecasting Brazilian rainfall since…
Argentine Remains Historically Dry Despite Spotty Showers in mid-January: The EU and GFS are still at odds over Argentine precip accumulation into the latter part of January. ARC’s bias remains towards the better performing EU solution, which is backed up by the lesser followed Canadian model. Root-zone soil moisture has worsened significantly throughout Northern &…
Global Rapeseed Market Sustains Premium to Soybeans; Rapeseed Balance Sheet Just as Tight: There is still no evidence that the slowing of US soybean demand will be accomplished by substituting minor oilseed products. In fact, ARC doubts that substitution will occur prior to late 2021 as the global rapeseed balance sheet is also historically tight.…
AgResource estimates Dec 1 US corn stocks at 11,682 Mil Bu, up 355 Mil Bu from last year amid larger production and as Gulf fobbing capacity has been given primarily to soybeans during the harvest. However, total Sep-Dec corn disappearance of 4,750 Mil Bu is the largest on record. Consumption through the balance of the…
