South America Week 2-4 Outlook: May into early June remains mostly dry.

Charts of the day: 30-day South America rainfall and current soil moisture. Discussion: The 30-day rainfall pattern across South America emphasizes dryness in south/southeast Brazil while central Argentina is wet. Soil moisture anomalies reflect the recent rainfall pattern as southern Brazil drought has intensified while Argentina soils trend wetter. Week-2 Ahead Forecast valid May 17-23,…

Europe/Russia Week 2-4 Outlook: Europe wet forecasts failing. Warm next week Russia, cooler again late month into June.

Chart of the day: The 7-day outlook. Discussion: Recent forecasts have featured a wet pattern change for Europe. However, last week’s rainfall in Europe was lacking. Consequently, the day 1-7 precipitation bias of all models (GFS pictured) is much too wet. Soil moisture conditions are borderline dry in France to Germany with stronger dryness in…