Summary: Brazil shipped 1.36 MMT of soybeans this past week (Feb 10). That was up 570,000 MT from the previous week. There were no Argentine exports last week. US exports are estimated to be 1.92 MMT. The lineup indicates that Brazil’s February shipments could be 10.15 MMT. Total Brazilian export commitments are 12.07 MMT, the 4th highest for this week but 25% less than a year ago. In the February WASDE, the USDA left their projection for Brazil’s new-crop exports unchanged at a record 96.50 MMT. For now, ARC’s projection is also 96.50 MMT.
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Last week Brazil exported 1.36 MT of soybeans. That’s up 570,000 MT from the previous week. Cumulative export “commitments” were estimated to be 12.17 MMT, which is 1.23 MMT MORE than a week ago, Commitments are 25% BELOW a year ago (see red line). USDA projects final exports will be 25% ABOVE last year.
There was 10.18 MMT in the lineup that was waiting to load or scheduled to arrive vs 12.13 MMT last year.
Brazil’s cumulative export commitments, for the local marketing year (begins Feb 1), have accounted for 12.5% of USDA’s projection vs last year’s ratio of 20.6% and the 5-year average of 15.6% (range 12.1% – 20.6%).
The ship lineup indicates that February shipments could be 10.15 MMT. Last year’s February shipments were 9.68 MMT but SESEX exports were 6.27 MMT. ARC expect final February exports will end up between 8.00-9.00 MMT. There was 3.18 MMT scheduled to ship in March.
