Summary: Last week (Feb 17) Brazil exported 681,000 MT of corn, down 530,000 MT from the previous week. Argentine exports were 1.04 MMT. Shipments from Ukraine were 1.2 MMT. US corn exports are estimated to be 535,000 MT. Brazil’s total corn export “commitments”, for the local marketing year, are 48.93 MMT vs 20.81 MMT last year. Brazil’s corn “commitments” declined 70,000 MT this past. Ship lineup data indicates that 2.16 MMT could be shipped in February. Last year’s February shipments were 504,000 MT but official SESEX exports were 773,000 MT. USDA’s February WASDE projection of Brazil’s “old-crop” exports was 48.00 MMT, up 1.5 MMT from the previous month. USDA’s projection for “new-crop” exports was raised 3 MMT to a record 50 MMT. ARC expects final old-crop exports to be 49 MMT – – 1 MMT more than USDA’s projection.
As of Feb 17, Brazil’s corn marketing year (Mar-Feb) export “commitments” are estimated to be 48.93 MMT. That is down 70,000 MT from the previous week, but it is 135% MORE than a year ago, and the largest figure for this date (see chart below). USDA projects exports will be up 128%.
This week, the tonnage of vessels that were waiting (or scheduled to arrive) was 626,000 MT vs “0” MT a year ago (see chart below).
The chart below shows that corn export commitments nearly 1.0 MMT above the USDA’s projection and there’s two weeks left in Brazil’s local marketing year. Commitments have accounted for 101.9% of projected exports vs last year’s 99.0% and the 5-year average ratio of 99.9% (range 97.7%-101.0%). Using the 5-year average ratio, commitments today imply annual exports of 49.00 MMT.
The chart below shows the monthly seasonal of Brazil corn exports for the local marketing year (Mar-Feb). The black circles represent monthly shipments based on shipping data. The red triangles represent official SECEX monthly exports. The green squares are last year’s SECEX monthly exports. There is 2.16 MMT scheduled to be shipped in February. There is 484,000 MT scheduled to ship in March.