Summary: US ethanol production was up 5% following declines in the previous two weeks. Despite the surge in production, ethanol stocks rose slightly less than half-a-percent. It is estimated that blender demand was up nearly 6% following a 6% decline the previous week. The futures-based producer margin improved and is nearly at break-even. Some measures of “cash-based”…
CBOT futures have largely maintained overnight strength. There’s little fresh to report other than a modestly supportive weekly EIA energy report. The GFS maintains spotty showers in Brazil over the next 6-7 days, but projected accumulation will not keep pace with evaporative losses. And recall the EU solution this AM keeps Brazilian rainfall rather limited…
The early morning AG wire identifies marginally beneficial wet weather in southeast Brazil, milder medium-range changes in the U.S. and more hot weather for Argentina easing western portions days 11-15.
The U.S. medium-range forecast trend is lifting the core of the upcoming cold pattern farther north.
Summary: China’s “spot” soybean crushing margin today was 85 Yuan/MT, up from last week’s 62. The “forward” margin was 29 Yuan/MT vs last week’s 19 Yuan/MT. In addition, the forward margin was 100 Yuan above what it was a year ago. Five months ago, the forward margin fell to its lowest level in 4 years. In the USDA’s December WASDE, China’s import projection was left unchanged at 90 MMT. However,…
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