Another day, another contract low in Dec CME wheat, as the market continues to reel from the USDA’s Black Sea production estimates and Wednesday’s Egyptian tender results. ARC has mentioned this week that the changes in the world trade matrix will be more nuanced than simply having record supplies Russia, but for the time being…
Midday GFS Too Wet; US Forecast Unchanged: Recorded precip once again fell short of expectations across IA, and precip in the next few days looks to be rather hit or miss. 48-hour accumulation is below, and with precip totaling just 10-50% of normal across E IA, IL and IN so far in August, more will…
BOTTOM LINE: The US ethanol market remains strong. No change to the USDA’s forecast is needed, but as export demand continues, perhaps corn use of 5,450-5,600 million bushels will be the new normal into 2018-2019. US ethanol plants responded to the recent boost in production margins, producing a near record 311 million gallons of ethanol…
Bottom Line: The EU is the world’s second largest wheat exporter. Last week, the USDA lowered their projection for EU wheat exports by 0.5 MMT to 29.5 MMT. Last year’s exports are estimated to have been 27 MMT. The EU exported a record 35.5 MMT in 2014/15. The Former Soviet Union (FSU) is projected to…
** It has been hard to kick the “bearishness” in grains with the charts pointing down and funds piling into larger net short positions. World wheat prices are edging lower following the GASC tender, which is also leaning on corn. The world wheat market is not understanding Russian logistical constraints – and that Asian demand…
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