Drought Expands; Rainfall in Extended Period Still Uncertain: The EU & GFS models are little changed with their outlooks through the next two weeks, and so important disagreement on rainfall and temps continues. The GFS maintains potentially soaking rainfall across the Southern Plains and Midwest beyond July 15th – as well as a tropical storm…
Bottom Line: Although US winter wheat production is expected to fall to its lowest level in nearly 15 years, it is unlikely that the market will react much to the report. This year, of greater importance to wheat prices is short-term weather developments in the US Northern Plains. If US weather doesn’t improve, wheat prices…
The GFS is still wet beyond mid-June, but few in trade have confidence in this outlook.
Bottom Line: In recent years (other than last year) Brazil’s Safrinha crop accounted for two-thirds of total production. The Safrinha crop has now exited its most critical stage of development and harvest has begun in a few areas. The peak of harvest will likely come at the end of this month. There are numerous reports…
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