Highlight: Areas of needed rainfall. Chile heavy rain pattern. Chart of the day: Warm SSTA plume into coastal Chile increases risk of drought-defeating rains south of Concepcion. Discussion: A semi-permanent warm water “blob” in the central South Pacific has recently expanded eastward with anomalous warm waters reaching the Chile Coast. The South Pacific storm track…
Highlight: Warm/dry climate shift into the West. Northern Plains drought persists, some rain possible early May. East avoids warmth. Charts of the day: How to forecasting a major drought. Discussion: Recent research has conveyed the fastest way to a FLASH DROUGHT scenario is presence of deep layer (10-200 CM) soil moisture deficit beneath conventional shallow…
Highlight: Very warm start to summertime reversing to near normal in July. Southeast Europe is wet. Germany may be a drought area. Executive Summary: The Climate Impact Company month 1-3 ahead forecast valid for May to July 2021 across Europe is updated. The forecast is based on an ENSO constructed analog and 2013-2020 (minus El…
Executive Summary: The Climate Impact Company month 1-3 ahead forecast for Australia valid for May through July 2021 is updated. The forecast is based on neutral ENSO and an evolving -IOD pattern. Forecast highlights include a significant much cooler change for May while East Australia is mostly warmer than normal. The winter climate pattern is…
Fig. 1-4: March 2021 U.S. temperature and precipitation ranks by state (top) and JAN/FEB/MAR 2021 U.S. temperature and precipitation ranks (bottom). Discussion: March 2021 was another warm month ranking 14th warmest in the 1895-2021 climatology (Fig. 1). The North-central U.S. ranked in the “much above” normal category while the remainder of the U.S. (except the…
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