Climate Impact Report: Forecast confidence is below average but wetter Brazil weather ahead in week 2-4 outlook.

Climate Impact

Chart of the day: Soil moisture anomaly and trend; week-1 rainfall forecast. Discussion: Soil moisture conditions are improving in Southeast Brazil to Northeast Argentina while just-to-the-north the Brazilian drought rages onward. The short-term rainfall forecast is drier in Paraguay and eastward across Southeast Brazil plus northeast Argentina. Week-2 Ahead Forecast valid October 3-9, 2021: Cooler…

Climate Impact Report: Russia to flip warmer.

Climate Impact

Charts of the day: Europe 10-day rainfall anomaly forecast. Discussion: The prevailing rainfall pattern across Southern Europe is dry through the next 10 days while short-term rains in the Black Sea/South Russia region ease next week. A wet pattern stretches across northwestern Europe especially next week. Week-2 Ahead Forecast valid October 3-9, 2021: GFS idea…

Climate Impact Report: High-pressure ridge locked-in over central portions of North America in latest week 2-4 outlook.

Climate Impact

Chart of the day: 15-day tropical outlook. Discussion: Expect an uptick in tropical cyclones which could strike the U.S. in early October. For now, GFS keeps several potential threats away from the coast. But model runs have been inconsistent, some showing East Coast and Gulf of Mexico threats. Week-2 Ahead Forecast valid: October 3-9, 2021:…

Climate Impact Report: A warmer-than-normal winter for China except normally cold north/northeast sections.

Climate Impact

Executive Summary: The Climate Impact Company season 1-3 ahead forecast for East Asia with a focus on China and Japan is updated. The outlook indicates a warmer-than-normal winter for central and eastern China while north/northeast China to Japan is normally cold. Southeast Asia is unusually dry during winter. The front end of the cool season…