News that the Russians were not going to more restrictive on 2020/21 export volumes pulled CBOT futures lower from a sharply higher CBOT opening. Wheat paced the AM decline as Russia will keep exporting wheat at elevated prices. The €50/MT ($1.65/Bu) Russian wheat export duty will be signed and applied on March 1st, but this…
Summary: As of Jan 21, China’s “spot” soybean crushing margin was 368 Yuan/MT, down 24 Yuan from a week ago. The “forward” margin was 369 yuan/MT, down 23 Yuan. However, the forward margin is 272 Yuan above what it was a year ago. Domestic soyoil’s price slipped 0.9% in the past week. Two weeks ago soyoil…
Highlight: Climate patterns. Fig. 1-2: The Nino12 and Nino34 SSTA forecasts through June (black) and best analogs (since 2000). Making a South America forecast: The Nino12 SSTA region is located just-off the northwest coast of South America. The Nino34 SSTA region stretches across the east-central equatorial Pacific Ocean. The ocean surface temperature in these two…
Highlight: Western chill while East trend is warmer. Charts of the day: The right idea… Discussion: Yesterday Climate Impact Company issued the latest MJO outlook indicating potential emergence of phase_6 (West Pacific) for late JAN/early FEB. The overnight forecast strengthens the MJO phase_6 outlook. The medium-range forecast should trend warmer in the East due to…
Highlight: An interesting Argentina rainfall outlook. Discussion: The mega-cluster ensembles indicate an interesting, potentially highly variable forecast across Argentina into early February. The mega-cluster is selected due to the increased reliability of this model over single operational models due to their inconsistencies in the current climate pattern and the extreme importance of the mid-to-late summer…
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