Midday CBT futures are mostly higher with a correction underway in oil/meal spreads. New crop corn and old crop May soybeans have been the upside leaders for their own fundamental reasoning. The 2021 Brazilian corn crop is being threatened by acute dryness and a widening yield loss while the ability of US soybean crushers to…
Summary: Brazil shipped 3.54 MMT of soybeans this past week. Argentine soybean exports were 28,000 MT. US export inspections are estimated to be 280,000 MT. Ship lineup indicates a total of 17.40 MMT will be shipped for the month of April. We estimate that 0.75-1.25 MMT of that will be rolled over for shipment at a later…
Highlight: Southeast Brazil drought area avoids MJO-induced heavy rain risk. Fig. 1-3: Most likely precipitation anomalies in the 15-day forecast for South America according to the mega-cluster ensemble. Discussion: A strong convection phase of the Madden Julian oscillation (MJO) has emerged in the West/Central equatorial Pacific Ocean. The category-5 super typhoon just east of the…
Chart of the day: Long-term rainfall shortages = Deep layer soil moisture deficit = Summertime flash drought risk Discussion: According to research done by Auburn University, deep layer (10-200 CM) soil moisture deficits develop when lengthy periods of below normal precipitation occur. As a general guide, the maps indicate 12-month precipitation shortages which imply deep…
Fig. 1-2: The 12-month precipitation anomalies for the U.S. and Europe to Russia. Dry zones (in yellow/orange) are regions to watch for flash drought during the summer season if a long-duration (7+ days) period of heat with little or no rain occurs. Blue zones (wet anomalies) resist flash drought risk during summer. Summertime flash drought…
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