** South American Pattern Appears Stuck: Model guidance is consistent with below normal rain for Argentina and far Southern Brazil into February. The CFSv2’s updated 16-30 guidance is attached. Ongoing draws in soil moisture will occur in S Argentina while too much rain drops across NE Brazil. The duration of Argentine dryness needs close monitoring…
** South American Forecast is Dry for Argentina; Excessively Wet in NE Brazil: The forecast is consistent from prior runs which raises our confidence in its output. The jet stream will be pulled farther south than normal which will soak Northern Brazil, but produce generally dry weather for Argentina. The attached graphic reflects Jan 17-21…
** South American Forecast Slightly Wetter in Argentina; Major Boost in Soil Moisture Coming to Central & Northern Brazil: The South American forecast has added lite/scattered showers to Central Argentina throughout the next two weeks. More rain will be needed by early February, but Argentine soil moisture will hold steady into late Jan amid a…
** Drier Pattern Established in Argentina/Southern Brazil; Soaking Showers Due in Central Brazil: The South American forecast is consistent with prior runs. The mean position of the jet stream in S America moves southward in the next 1-2 days. This implies that meaningful rainfall will be limited to tropical showers in Central and Northern Brazil.…
** Argentine Rain Exceeds Expectations (Again); Climate Forecast Consistent: The forecast offers heavier rainfall to Central Brazil in the 8-15 day period. Otherwise the outlook into late January is unchanged from previously. A pattern of dryness returns to Southern Brazil and the southern half of Argentine crop areas moving forward. This follows heavy and needed…
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