South American corn has been aggressively priced since the middle of 2019. Above-trend Argentine yields last winter and near trend safrinha yields in Central Brazil during the spring allowed South America’s exportable corn surplus to balloon to record levels. The attached graphic shows combined Argentine & Brazilian corn export shipments by month during the international…
Ukraine’s combined corn, wheat and barley production in 2019 is pegged at a record large 73.9 MMTs. This compares to 68.5 MMTS a year ago and just 37 MMTS in 2010. The growth in both grain area and yield in Ukraine has been impressive. Compounding Ukraine’s grain surplus has been a contraction in domestic use.…
US winter wheat seeding is projected to decline for a 7th consecutive year as the market fails to provide the necessary economic incentive. The attached graphic shows the % change in cash corn and wheat price in Central KS and Central OH. It’s clear that Plains producers will favor corn in 2020 as the HRW…
NASS will begin the process of collecting data for the November crop report in another two weeks. US harvest progress for both corn/soybeans will (hopefully) have reached the +50% mark. The soybean market has rallied on China demand and tightening US balance sheet. However, the trade is aware of a strong bias for yield to…
US corn and soy balance sheets have tightened on lost supply since late summer. This has also impacted major exporter row crop balance sheets. Yet, rallies above/near the cost of production have been labored. ARC has highlighted since May that the market has been comprised almost equally of supply-driven bulls and demand-driven bears. ARC’s thesis…
