Summary: In their May WASDE, the USDA raised their projection for EU wheat exports by 1.5 MMT to 35.0 MMT (vs 23.3 MMT last year). In recent years, the EU has been the world’s second largest wheat exporter. In 2014/15, the EU exported a record 35.5 MMT. This year, the Former Soviet Union (FSU) is…
Summary: US ethanol stocks continue to be drawn down as weekly gasoline consumption rises. Additional declines in stocks should boost ethanol margins by summer. Yet, it remains that a major change in weekly grind rates is needed to validate the USDA’s corn used for ethanol forecast of 4,950 Mil Bu. ++++++++++++++++ Weekly US gasoline consumption…
Summary: As of May 13, China’s “spot” soybean crushing margin was 36 Yuan/MT, up 6 Yuan from the prior week. The “forward” margin was -57 yuan/MT, down 13 Yuan. Also, the forward margin was 96 Yuan below what it was a year ago. Domestic soyoil’s price was up 1.1% from a week ago. Two months ago,…
Bottom Line: The USDA will release its first US winter wheat crop estimate today. On a percentage basis, the range in estimates for the 2020 winter wheat production is smaller than average. After examining the history of the trades estimates for winter wheat, we find that, on average, the trade has no bias to either over-or-under-estimate…
Summary: Tomorrow (May 12), the USDA will release its May WASDE that will include the first projections for the 2020/21 crops. On average, analysts under-estimate corn ending stocks. However, trade estimates stocks of wheat and soybeans tend to over-estimate. This year, analysts have to contend with uncertainty over how much, if any, the USDA will raise…
