US Soybean Ship Lineup Slips Below Year Ago.

Summary:  Next week ’s soybean export inspections are expected to be 650,000 MT (23.9 Mil Bu).   If this is correct, that would be upslightly from the previous week’s 635,000 MT.  This week’s ship lineup is 611,000 MMT.  That is up slightly from last week.  However, this week’s lineup is 23% less than it was a year ago.  There were 11 vessels to-be-nominated (TBN).  That is…

US Ethanol Production Up 3%, Reversing Last Week’s Plunge But Stocks Drop Nearly 3%

Summary: US ethanol production rose nearly 3% this past week, more than what some analysts had expected.  However, blender use declined whereas some had expected it to increase.  Surprisingly, ethanol stocks dropped 2.8% which suggests that the previous week’s jump in stocks was in preparation for an export program this week.    ++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++    US ethanol production through the…

Russian Wheat Harvest Reports Supportive of USDA’s Projection of 67 MMT, But Could Go Lower As Harvest Progresses

Summary:  USDA is projecting this year’s Russian wheat yield will be 2.63 MT/HA (39.11 Bu/Ac).  That’s down 4% from the previous projection and down 15.4% from last year’s record  yield of 3.11 MT/HA (46.24 Bu/Ac). The most recent Russian harvest report shows this year’s yields are sharply lower than a year ago.  In the past week,…

China’s Soybean “Spot” Crush Margin Down But Still Profitable; “Forward” Margin Falls Further Below Break-Even

Summary: China’s “spot” soybean crushing margin today was +76  Yuan/MT, down from the previous week’s +145.  Two weeks ago saw the highest that the spot margin has been since December 2016.  The “forward” margin was  -154 Yuan/MT vs last week’s –133.   The forward margin was 25 Yuan below what it was a year ago.  A month ago, the forward margin fell to its lowest in 4 years.    In…