Even After 2-Day Selloff, Soybean Futures Still Retain a “Risk Premium” of about $1.42/Bu

Bottom Line:   Today’s July soybean futures close was $10.48 (down about 28 cents from what it was the day before the USDA’s Mar WASDE).  A model of soybean futures price, based off the March WASDE’s stocks/use projection and July corn futures, implies that today’s price still has a “risk premium” of about $1.42/Bu.  Today’s price is more than…

US Soybean Ship Lineup Continues Seasonal Decline. Will This Week’s Surge in Export Sales Stop the Slide?

Summary:  Our point estimate for next week’s export inspections is 1.025 MMT (38 Mil Bu).   If this is correct, that would be up 4% from last week.  This week’s ship lineup is 701,000 MMT.  That is down 27% from last week, the smallest in 27 weeks, but a bit below last year’s 701,000 MMT.  There were 19 vessels to-be-nominated (TBN).  That is 6 less than last week,…

Brazil’s New-Crop Corn Export Year Starts With Few Vessels In The Lineup. It Could Be June Before Exports Ramp Up.

Bottom Line: According to the USDA’s calendar, Brazil’s new-crop corn marketing year begins Mar 01.  As of Mar 02, Brazil’s corn export “commitments” were estimated to be 314,000 MT.  That’s up from last year’s 103,000 MT. Official SESEX exports for February were 1.25 MMT.  That brings the Mar-Feb yearly total up to 31.6 MMT.  USDA’s Feb…

Egypt Pays Highest Price for Wheat in 3 Years

Bottom Line: Today, Egypt’s GASC purchased 175,000 MT of wheat.  The average CIF price paid was $230.66/MT.  That is the highest price paid in three years.  Russia accounted for all the business.  On a FOB basis, the average price paid was $214.35/MT, up $6.35/MT from the last tender (on Feb 21).  In its Feb WASDE report the USDA left its…