Brazil’s Old-Crop Soy Exports Expected to be 84.0-84.5 MMT Vs USDA’s Projection of 80.85 MMT

Summary:   Brazil shipped just 130,000 MT of soybeans last week. That’s down from the previous week’s 342,000 MT and it is below a year ago.  According to cargo services data, Brazil’s old-crop export “commitments” were 85.93 MMT.  That is up by a surprisingly large 500,000 MT from the previous week.  We suspect that some of the increase…

Surge in Vessels To-Be-Nominated (TBN) Makes It Almost Impossible to Determine US Soybean Export Ship Lineup

Summary:  Next week ’s soybean export inspections are expected to be 1,300,000 MT (47.8 Mil Bu).   If this is correct, that would be up 20% from the previous week’s.  This week’s ship lineup is 859,000 MT.  That is down 35% from last week.  This  week’s lineup is 35% smaller than a year ago.  There were 52 vessels to-be-nominated (TBN).  That is up from last week and is the largest…

US Ethanol Production Surges 5% After Declining the Previous Two Weeks.

Summary: US ethanol production was up 5% following declines in the previous two weeks.  Despite the surge in production, ethanol stocks rose slightly less than half-a-percent.  It is estimated that blender demand was up nearly 6% following a 6% decline the previous week.  The futures-based producer margin improved and is nearly at break-even.  Some measures of “cash-based”…

China’s Soybean Crush Margin Back Above Break-Even But Soymeal Prices in Free-Fall.

Summary: China’s “spot” soybean crushing margin today was 85 Yuan/MT, up from last week’s 62.   The “forward” margin was 29 Yuan/MT vs last week’s  19 Yuan/MT.  In addition, the forward margin was 100 Yuan above what it was a year ago.  Five months ago, the forward margin fell to its lowest  level in 4 years.    In the USDA’s December WASDE, China’s import projection was left unchanged at 90 MMT.   However,…