Bottom Line: Our point estimate for next week’s export inspections is 1.425 MMT (52 Mil Bu). If this is correct, that would be up 8% from last week. This week’s ship lineup is 1.729 MMT. That is down 9% from last week but well above last year’s 1.271 MMT. There were 44 vessels to-be-nominated (TBN). That is a record for this year, 13 more than last…
Bottom Line: In their Feb WASDE, the USDA lowered their projection for EU wheat exports by 1.0 MMT to 26.0 MMT (vs 27.32 MMT last year). The EU is the world’s second largest wheat exporter. In 2014/15, the EU exported a record 35.5 MMT in 2014/15. The Former Soviet Union (FSU) is projected to be…
Bottom Line: In the Feb WASDE, the USDA lowered their projection for US soybeans by 60 Mil Bu to 2,100 Mil Bu. In the last two months, the export projection has been lowered 125 Mil Bu. A simple “pace analysis” model suggests that US soybean exports may still be several hundred million bushels lower than…
Bottom Line: Monday was the last day that China crush margin data was available prior to the New Year/Spring Festival holiday. China’s “spot” soybean crushing margin was up from the previous week ago and above break-even. The spot margin was +30 Yuan/MT. However, the “forward” margin was just below break-even at -1 Yuan/MT. In addition, the forward margin…
Bottom Line: Today’s July soybean futures close was$10.32 (up about 27 cents from what it was the day before the USDA’s Feb WASDE). A model of soybean futures price, based off the February WASDE’s stocks/use projection and July corn futures, implies that today’s price has a “risk premium” for about $1.25/Bu. Today’s price is more than one-and-a-half standard…
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