Brazil Soybean Export Commitments Are Nearly 45% of USDA’s Projection. USDA Raises Projection 2.6 MMT to Record 69.25 MMT

Summary:   Brazil shipped 2.78 MMT of soybeans last week. That’s down from the previous week’s 3.12 MMT but above last year’s 2.39 MMT. Brazil’s export “commitments” rose to 30.9 MMT, 1.01 MMT above last year.  This is a record for this date. In the April WASDE, the USDA boosted their projection for Brazil’s exports in their Feb-Jan local…

Soybean Inspections Expected To Be Up From Season Lows. Ship Lineup Unclear Because of Large Number of Ships To-Be-Nominated

Summary:  Next week ’s export inspections is expected to be 600,000 MT (22.0 Mil Bu).   If this is correct, that would be up from last week’s season low of 374,000 MT.  This week’s ship lineup is 498,000 MMT.  That is 24% below last week’s lineup.  However, this week’s lineup is slightly higher than last year’s 421,000 MMT.  There were 33 vessels to-be-nominated (TBN).  That is…

Larger-Than-Expected Drop in US Ethanol Stocks. Feb Exports Record Large But Not Expected to Last As Brazil Prices Fall Sharply.

Summary: US ethanol production declined fractionally again this past week but there was a larger-than-expected reduction in ethanol stocks (down 2.7%).  Stocks are now 10% less than the record highs of a month ago.  Blender use was unchanged which was attributed to inclement weather.   Fears of a major change in US biofuel mandates appear to have…

China’s Crush Margins Decline After Surging Last Week. Oct-May Cumulative Imports Estimated to Be Up 2.79 MMT (4.7%)

Summary: China’s “spot” soybean crushing margin is down sharply from a week ago.  Today’s spot margin is  -22 Yuan/MT.  However, the “forward” margin is  +16 Yuan/MT.   Also, the forward margin is 80 Yuan above what it was a year ago.   For the first 8 months (Oct-May) of the international marketing year,  China’s cumulative imports of soybeans is projected to be…