Argentine Farmer Sales of New-Crop Soybeans Above Year Ago. Are Farmers Selling Some of Their Record Stocks?

Summary:  Argentina’s local marketing year for soybeans will begin April 1.  Farmer sales of new-crop soybeans for crush and export are both running ahead of last year and at a pace that would exceed USDA’s March WASDE export projection of combined crush + export use of 49.6 MMT.  However, most analysts are still lowering their projections…

Informa’s Corn & Soybean Acreage Projections Usually Within 2% of USDA’s Prospective Plantings.

Summary:  This morning Informa released estimates for 2018 crop seedings.  Soybean seedings were pegged at 91.477 Mil Ac and corn was estimated to be 88.92 Mil Ac. Informa’s projections have a very slight tendency to over-estimate soybean and corn seedings.  In those years that the soybean estimate was too high, the median error was 1.6%.  Based…

China Crush Margins Improve But Remain Below Break-even. March Imports Expected to Be 6.75-7.25 MMT; April Imports Could Be 10.5-11.5 MMT

Bottom Line: Today, China’s “spot” soybean crushing margin improved but remained below break-even.  The spot margin is  -13 Yuan/MT.  The “forward” margin is  -42 Yuan/MT.   However, the forward margin is just 10 Yuan below what it was a year ago.   Ship lineup data from the principal soybean exporting countries indicates that China’s March imports could be 6.75-7.25 MMT vs February’s imports…