Australia Week 2-4 Outlook: Subtropical ridge is dominant – more intense heat and dryness.
The subtropical ridge is strong across Australia much of the time into February causing more extreme heat and dryness as drought expands.
The subtropical ridge is strong across Australia much of the time into February causing more extreme heat and dryness as drought expands.
Climate support by the Madden Julian oscillation and anomalous warm ocean surface southeast of Brazil is for persistent dry weather in Brazil through the remainder of January. There is risk of some beneficial rainfall in Brazil Feb. 3-9 as the MJO shifts east across the equatorial Pacific Ocean.
“Warm blobs” of ocean water east of Australia and Brazil are well-correlated to hot and dry weather producing subtropical ridge areas causing Australia and Brazil drought to worsen mid-summer.
The 2019 ENSO outlook carries a very weak El Nino forward through northern hemisphere summer.
Hot spots include a titanic subtropical ridge anchored over Australia and similarly over Brazil. Meanwhile steady cold develops into Europe.
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