Highlight: Mid-to-late winter forecasts are adjusted milder. Executive summary: The Climate Impact Company month 1-3 ahead outlook valid for Quarter 1 of 2021 is updated. The outlook trends milder as Eurasia is increasingly the likely target for arctic air generation and a locked-in cold pattern. On the other side of the polar region warm SSTA,…
Charts of the day: National HDD 4-week anomaly forecast. HDD discussion: The warmer January outlook is certainly reflected in the weekly HDD anomaly forecast for the next 4 weeks. The warm East U.S. climate where population is highest biases the low HDD count. Week-2 Ahead Forecast valid January 4-10, 2021: Colder/more snowy West; warmer East.…
Warm risk easily outgains cold risk.
The storm track expands West to Central U.S. to ease some of the dry soil moisture condition.
Discussion: Right now a persistent and powerful cold upper trough shifts into Western Europe to deliver chilly weather and a combination of rain and snow storms. To the east a snowless and mild climate persists across Eastern Europe into Western Russia. However, the tight thermal contrast between the moist/cold pattern over Western Europe and the…
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