Trouble brewing for U.S. spring wheat and west/north U.S. Corn Belt! Fig. 1: Rainfall needed to neutralize dry Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) in primary agriculture areas. Annotated is the wet to very wet soil moisture regions. U.S. spring wheat and corn are at risk for strengthening summer 2021 drought. Fig. 2-3: The ECM ENS…
Charts of the day: Heat risk ahead. Discussion: The heat is on to start meteorological summer! This week a harsh California heat wave featuring 100F+ develops. A surge of >95F drops-in on the northern Great Plains drought area this week. In the 6-10-day period widespread >90F is forecast including coastal Northeast Corridor heat waves.…
Fig. 1-2: ECM and GFS Ensemble(s) have large differences in the 15-day South America rainfall forecast. Discussion: The general trend of 15-day rainfall forecasts for South America over-the-weekend is drier. However, there remains large differences between leading models. ECM ENS indicates risk of moderate to heavy rain across northern Argentina and East Brazil (Fig. 1).…
Fig. 1-3: Heavy rainfall event late in the 6-10 day forecast for the northern Plains (top left). The 10-day heavy rainfall forecast across Texas (top right). Day 11-15 patchy shower activity northern Plains into the western Corn Belt. Fig. 4-5: U.S. My 2021 soil moisture anomalies and 30-day change. Fig. 6: Canada summertime precipitation forecast. …
Charts of the day: 12Z GFS-day 1-7 forecast. Discussion: Warm ahead of a cold front across the Southeast followed by wet weather with cold front arrival. A dry pattern across the West. Week-2 Ahead Forecast valid June 7-13, 2021: Wetter East. Discussion: Significant change in the forecast as the East shift wetter and North cooler/drier.…
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