Charts of the day: Wet trough into Western Europe; Southwest Russia is dry. Discussion: The next 7 days feature arrival of another wet upper trough for Western Europe. East of this feature, Southeast Europe to Southwest Russia trend warmer and drier. Northwest to West-central Russia encounter a showery and cool upper trough pattern. Week-2 Ahead…
Why the hotter GFS ENS is favored over the cooler ECM ENS for North America Discussion: Negative arctic oscillation (-AO) is forecast to develop beginning early next week and linger through day-15. During winter, this scenario would suggest a stormy/cold mid-latitude weather pattern. However, that effect during mid-summer is more difficult to produce. Briefly, the…
Highlight: Evolving intense heat in the Central U.S. Southwest U.S. wet monsoon backs into California. Charts of the day: The 7-day forecast…emerging Central heat. Discussion: The evolving excessive heat develops in earnest on Tuesday. 100F risk is ahead North-central U.S. this weekend. Widespread much above 120F develops for TUE-THU of next week. The 72-hour forecast…
Executive Summary: The Climate Impact Company month 1-3 ahead outlook for August through October 2021 indicates the most likely position for a warm-to-hot and dry high-pressure ridge is across West/Southwest Russia for August into September followed by a pattern changing chilly upper trough in October. Drying soils across Western Russia but mostly north of the…
Executive Summary: The Climate Impact Company month 1-3 ahead forecast valid for August to October 2021 is updated. Heading into the later stages of summer 2021, the primary issues are drought concerns in Western Russia (please see the Russia month 1-3 outlook for more details) while drought risk for Europe is unlikely. The prevailing soil…
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