Charts of the day: This week’s temperature/precipitation anomalies. Discussion: The ECM indicates evolution of a colder regime extending westward across Europe later this week. Snowfall develops and leaves much of Europe snow covered by late week. Arctic air is stretched across Northwest Russia. Week-2 Ahead Forecast valid January 18-24, 2021: Winter look – snow and…
Highlight: South America (12Z GFS) Update. Incoming Europe chill; Central Russia is arctic cold. Fig. 1: The 30-day percent of normal rainfall across South America and the annotated wet/dry zones the next 10 days. South America update: The 12Z GFS continues to emphasize wet weather over north/northeast Argentina and into Southeast Brazil the next 10…
Fig. 1-3: The mega-cluster ensemble identifies the arctic air source regions the next 15 days…In Eurasia and expanding toward/into Europe. Frigid January arctic air discussion: Stratospheric warming has been effective although somewhat transient the past couple weeks. The best location for stratospheric warming to cause arctic air to develop at ground level is in a…
Fig. 1-2: Precipitation type profile across Texas for this afternoon and late evening features widespread heavy snow. Heavy snowstorm for Texas into Louisiana: NOAA/NWS extends their Winter Storm Warning across west/central Texas eastward to the northern half of Louisiana. The projected precipitation type profile for 2PM this afternoon indicates heavy snow across most pf the…
Fig. 1: Weather satellite view of South America this morning. Note the cold front entering Argentina. This system moves northeast and triggers heavy rain for northeast Argentina beginning later today. Strong cold front into Argentina: The morning satellite view reveals lingering heavy thunderstorms from yesterday’s thunderstorm activity along the Mato Grosso/Mato Grosso Do Sul border…
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