Highlight: Turning cooler but lacking any excessive rainfall. Chart of the day: Last 7 days rainfall across Australia Discussion: The Australia rainfall analysis for Oct. 20-26 reveals heavy amount on the immediate East Coast and Southwest Coast of the continent. Week-2 Ahead Forecast valid October 31-November 6, 2021: Marginal wet weather Central Australia, Discussion: Marginally…
Highlight: Cool ECM forecast has right idea although the model is likely too cool. Chart of day: ECM ENS verification of 6-10-day forecast past 30 days. Discussion: ECM ENS day 6-10 verification scores indicate the model has been consistently too cool in the Ohio Valley. Marginal cool bias is indicated in the West where GFS…
Highlight: Looking like a conventional La Nina. Fig. 1: The 12-week Nino SSTA regime indicates a conventional La Nina is underway. Discussion: The Nino region SSTA pattern certainly reveals a La Nina signature (Fig. 1). However, the observation trend identified equal cooling for most of the equatorial Pacific to the east of the Dateline indicating…
Climate Signals ALERT Chart Days 6-10 Days 11-15 Arctic Oscillation Negative Weak Positive North Atlantic Oscillation Weak Negative Weak Negative Pacific North America Positive Positive West Pacific Oscillation Weak Positive Negative East Pacific Oscillation Negative Weak Negative Madden Julian Oscillation West Indian Ocean East Indian Ocean Climate signals discussion: Support for a cooler U.S.…
Discussion: Flooding is taking place this morning across North-central to northeast Illinois to northern Indiana and southern Michigan due to heavy rainfall the past 24 hours. The heavy rain departs this zone today. Another wave of heavy rain arrives in the Great Plains tomorrow blossoming into a severe weather event. Initially, the heavy rains affect…
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