Executive Summary: NOAA/CPC announced onset of La Nina yesterday. The Climate Impact Company ENSO forecast (based on an analog) indicates La Nina lasts into April 2022 followed by a long duration neutral ENSO for the remainder of 2022 through middle 2023 (Fig. 1). The “caveat” forecast is El Nino for late next year. A third…
Highlight: Storms/chilly risk West Coast otherwise pattern is mostly warm Chart of day: Prevailing upper air pattern remainder of October. Discussion: The ECM ENS 15-day upper air pattern finds a persistent upper trough extending south from the cool SSTA region in the Gulf of Alaska. To compensate for that elongated deep trough, an upper ridge…
Highlight: Brazil downpours on the way. Argentina trends drier. Forecast change: Wetter U.S. wheat days 11-15. Watching Australia rainfall pattern. Fig. 1-2: Stronger frontal systems into southwest/southeast Brazil in the 15-day outlook coupled with tropical moisture cause a wetter Brazil forecast for the next 15 days while Argentina trends drier. Fig. 3: A change in…
Climate Signals ALERT Chart Days 6-10 Days 11-15 Arctic Oscillation Weak Positive Weak Positive North Atlantic Oscillation Negative Neutral Pacific North America Positive Positive West Pacific Oscillation Strong Positive Positive East Pacific Oscillation Neutral Weak Positive Madden Julian Oscillation Weak Weak Climate signals discussion: +PNA is stronger and does not support the wet weather…
Highlight: After short-term storms, Great Plains is dry for 10+ days. Brazil not quite as wet, northern Argentina wetter in 15-day outlook. Fig. 1-2: The 60-hour precipitation forecast for the Central U.S. and 24-hour snowfall forecast for the far northwest Great Plains. Short-term U.S.: Plethora of weather warnings and advisories are in-place now across the…
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