Charts of the day: A reminder, the Q2 of 2021 U.S. climate outlook. Discussion: Issued earlier this month the Climate Impact Company constructed analog forecast for quarter 2 of 2021 indicates an early start for summertime heat across the Southwest U.S. which extends to the central Great Plains and Texas (and eastward) at times. A…
Highlight: U.S. reverses drier after 10 days. Argentina trend is drier. Short-term significant precipitation Black Sea region. Excessive rains in East Australia. Fig. 1-2: The ECM 10-day precipitation amount forecast and the week-2/week-3 precipitation anomaly projection also by ECMWF. U.S. discussion: The stormy pattern raising soil moisture in parts of the Great Plains, Mid-south and…
Charts of the day: Why are forecasts trending wetter for Argentina? Discussion: In March, the forecast trend is wetter across Argentina and drier in Brazil after a climate pattern that was just-the-opposite in February to early March. The reason for the wetter change in Argentina is a persistent upper trough just-off the central west coast…
Highlight: Wet Central U.S. pattern breaks warmer/drier mid-April. Charts of the day: U.S. soil moisture and March trend. Discussion: Soil moisture monitoring as the warm season approaches is important due to the relevance large areas of soil moisture surplus or deficit have modifying the summertime climate. As an example, a large drought area is usually…
Executive Summary: The Climate Impact Company month 1-3 ahead forecast for South America valid for April through June 2021 is updated. The forecast is based on subtropical warm SSTA throughout the southern hemisphere and less so on an increasingly neutral ENSO-look. Forecast highlights include a wetter forecast to squash Argentina drought concerns while interior southeastern…
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