Highlight: Transient cool trough squashes the Russia heat wave. Charts of the day: This week is very hot and dry in Western Russia. Discussion: A cool upper trough shifts into Europe. Wet weather associated with the trough extends across Northern Europe. A second area of rain is focused on the region just north of Black…
Highlight: Sharp cold front next week; Northeast Brazil to go wet. Charts of the day: The 5-day outlook. Discussion: A very warm pattern to the north of an active frontal zone and centered on Paraguay this week. Dryness persists across Brazil. Along the frontal zone, Chile is wet and south-central Argentina gains rain showers. Week-2…
Highlight: Negative Atlantic meridional mode increases risk of a wet spring in Brazil. Fig. 1: The Atlantic meridional mode has shifted into a strong negative phase which should benefit Brazil for increased risk of a wet spring ahead. Discussion: The Atlantic meridional mode (AMM) has shifted into a strong negative phase during mid-year 2021 (Fig.…
Highlight: Mid-south heat days 6-10; West rewarms days 11-15. Chart of the day: ECM ENS >100F risk. Discussion: The ECM ENS >100F risk forecast is not nearly as hot as GFS. Areas of >100F risk include the northwest Great Plains the next couple days and the Mid-south States in the 6-10-day period. California/Arizona >100F risk…
Highlight: Brief rains North-central U.S.; U.S. Soybean areas hot days 6-10. Freeze risk days 11-15 Southeast Brazil. Southern Europe heatwave to return. Fig. 1-2: The ECM ENS days 1-7 and days 8-14 percent of normal rainfall forecast for North America. Canadian Prairies/North-central U.S. rainfall: A transitional weather pattern evolves over the next 2 weeks. In…
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