Charts of the day: Early season snow cover playing a role on warm North America pattern. Discussion: Northwest North America and northeast/North-central Russia early season snow cover is gaining, causing the atmosphere aloft to cool and inviting presence of the polar vortex through the middle third of October. East of the polar vortex, a high…
Fig. 1: The subsurface equatorial Pacific keeps getting colder. Discussion: The subsurface equatorial eastern Pacific upper ocean heat is plummeting. Last week, the core of the big chill strengthened about halfway in-between the Dateline and northwest South America coast (Fig. 1). In September, the upper ocean heat index to the east of the Dateline lowered…
Highlight: Continue very warm Central and East. Chart of the day: The last super warm Central/East October was in 2016. Following November was (anomalous) warmer! Discussion: Given the super warm first half of October 2021 in the Central and into the East U.S. which is likely to last beyond mid-month reasonable is to project…
Highlight: Wet Medium-range Forecasts in Key Crop Areas Discussion: After a dry and very warm week ahead in the Great Plains a wetter pattern unfolds due to a slowly progressing Western U.S. upper trough. In the 6-10-day period 1-3 in. of rain is likely across parts of the Great Plains into the Midwest States (Fig.…
Highlight: East Australia patchy rains, South-central Europe downpours and a China chill. Fig. 1-2: GFS days 6-10/days 11-15 rainfall forecast across Australia. Discussion: Wet weather associated with frontal zones is indicated during the medium-range across Eastern Australia (Fig. 1-2). The rainfall pattern is patchy and not excessive according to GFS. During September, rainfall was above…
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