Highlight: Possible Strong Negative IOD Ahead! Fig. 1: The updated Australia Bureau of Meteorology Indian Ocean Index Forecast. Discussion: Today the Australia Bureau of Meteorology issued an updated Indian Ocean Index (IOD) forecast indicating emergence of a possible strong negative phase for the Australian winter (Fig. 1). -IOD occurs when waters northwest of Australia and…
Charts of the day: Choosing the right soaking wet forecast. Discussion: Forecast models point toward widening (very) wet weather risk in the 6-10-day period. The “most likely” scenario is heavy rains from Texas to the Midwest U.S. and northward to central Canada. However, the “preferred” is mega-cluster ensemble no. 2 which is drier in the…
Chart of the day: Re-emerging MJO favors a drier pattern! Discussion: There have been wetter forecasts in the medium-range mainly for the South-central U.S. over-the-weekend and today. However, an emerging transient Madden Julian oscillation (MJO) forecast to shift from the Indian Ocean (now) toward the Dateline in 2 weeks is a drier climate signature for…
Highlight: Heavy Rains Southern Plains/Mid-South U.S. during medium-range via the 12Z GFS. Fig. 1-2: The 12Z GFS day 6-10 precipitation anomaly forecast and day 6-10 temperature change from 12 hours ago. Discussion: In the 6-10-day forecast the midday GFS projects an energetic upper flow that propels some wet weather just north of Wisconsin early…
Chart of the day: A weaker -PNA forecast. Discussion: Last week’s -1.0 to -1.5 PNA index forecast meant business…Cool Northwest, wet Central and warmer East. However, over-the-weekend the -PNA forecast is weaker therefore the previous “guarantees” are less well-supported. Medium-range 6-10 Day Forecast Valid May 15-19, 2021 Medium-range 11-15 Day Forecast Valid May 20-24, 2021…
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